Weather StoryAlmanac, microseasons, and the day's weather story.

Merced, California Weather

Summer heat deepens across the valleys. Day 15 of summer. Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Merced weather forecast — hour by hour, 7-day outlook, NOAA radar

Merced, CA
Sunday, July 5 at 9:56 AM
80
°
Partly Cloudy
Feels like
80°
Humidity
39%
Wind
4 mph
Sunrise
10:47 PM
Sunset
1:25 PM
Merced, CA
Hour by hour · 24h
24-Hour ForecastMerced, CA: 24-hour forecast. Temperatures range from 63 to 96 degrees Fahrenheit.
L 63°H 96°
Merced, CA
7-day forecast
  1. Today
    Jul 5
    Overcast
    16%
    —
    96°69°—
  2. Monday
    Jul 6
    Overcast
    —
    —
    95°63°-1°
  3. Tuesday
    Jul 7
    Mostly Clear
    —
    —
    101°56°+6°
  4. Wednesday
    Jul 8
    Clear
    —
    —
    103°56°+2°
  5. Thursday
    Jul 9
    Clear
    —
    —
    107°60°+4°
  6. Friday
    Jul 10
    Clear
    —
    —
    109°62°+2°
  7. Saturday
    Jul 11
    Overcast
    —
    —
    111°65°+2°
Merced, CA
Next 24 hours · Mild now
HOT 90°55°80°105°6a12p6p12anow 75°high 96°low 63°PRECIP %
Merced, CA
Anemometer · 24h winds · from true
NESW
From · True
N
000° · veering 21°
Direction
N
000°
Sustained
4
mph
Gust
5
mph
Peak 24h
15
avg 7
Beaufort · 2 · LIGHT BRZ
0
CALM
<1
1
LIGHT AIR
1–3
2
LIGHT BRZ
4–7
3
GENTLE BRZ
8–12
4
MOD BRZ
13–18
5
FRESH BRZ
19–24
6
STRONG BRZ
25–31
7
NEAR GALE
32–38
24h · sust vs gust · mph
avg 7 · pk 15 @ 11:00p
0102030MPHB1B2B3B4B5B6-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOWpk 239SUSTGUST
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
A whisper of wind — leaves barely shift on the trees.
Merced, CA
Barometer · 24h pressure · mb
STORMRAINCHANGEFAIRDRY9901000101010201030
Pressure · mb
1007.2
+0.8 mb in 3h · rising · 29.74 inHg
Now
1007.2
mb
3h
+0.8
mb
12h
+2.0
mb
24h
-0.5
mb
Regime · RAIN
STORM
RAIN
CHANGE
FAIR
DRY
24h · Pressure · mb
range 1005–1008
1000STORM|RAIN10051010RAIN|CHG1015CHG|FAIR-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOW1008.01004.81007.5
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Damp, unsettled regime — wet weather lingers nearby.
Merced, CA
Air quality
35
AQI
Good
→-4 in 6h

AQI 35 (Good), driven by PM2.5. AQI flat over the last 6 hours (within ±4 points). PM2.5 at 9.3 µg/m³ (AQI 51) with a 0.73 fine-to-coarse ratio and 4 mph wind — combustion smoke trapped in calm air, not road dust.

OK No precautions needed for the general population; unusually sensitive individuals may consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

PM 2.5DRIVERGood
9.3μg/m³
PM 10Good
13μg/m³
NO₂Good
7μg/m³
OzoneGood
44μg/m³
UV IndexModerate
2.7

What's driving it

PM × Wind × Precip

PM2.5 at 9.3 µg/m³ (AQI 51) with a 0.73 fine-to-coarse ratio and 4 mph wind — combustion smoke trapped in calm air, not road dust.

PM2.5/PM10
0.73
Wind
calm
Recent rain
0h in last 6h
Pattern
stagnant smoke

Trends

Seven days of AQI and PM2.5.

Hourly air-quality data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, charted across the past and next several days. Dashed lines mark the AQI breakpoints at 50 (Good → Moderate) and 100 (Moderate → Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups).

7-DAY AQI TREND50100SUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATSUN7-DAY PM2.5 TREND · μg/m³300
Merced, CA
Sky cover · visibility · 24h
Cloud cover
64%
PARTLY CLOUDY
100%0%−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Visibility
101.1mi
UNLIMITED
153 mi0 mi−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Earth · GOES-19 ABI
Full Disk · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 full disk Visible · GeoColor
True-color daytime, blue/IR sandwich at night
16:56 UTC · Merced, CA · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · up to 10848 px
Continental US · GOES-19 ABI
CONUS Sector · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 CONUS Visible · GeoColor
Daytime true-color, blue-light/IR sandwich at night
16:56 UTC · Merced, CA · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · 5-min cadence · up to 10000 px
Merced, CA
Satellite · infrared · animated
Merced, CA
Loading IR frames…
IR · cloud-top temp© RainViewer · Carto
Merced, CA
Almanac · Sunday, July 5
If the first of July be rainy weather, 'twill rain more or less for four weeks together.
Civil dawn
5:17 AM
Sunrise
10:47 PM
Daylight
14h 38m
Sunset
1:25 PM
Civil dusk
8:57 PM
Planting note
Harvest early potatoes. Begin drying onions on the surface.
Merced, CA
The moon
Waning Gibbous
71% illuminated
Moonrise
11:20 PM
Moonset
11:20 AM
In sign
♓︎ Pisces
Merced, CA
Microseason
Jul 1–5

Summer heat deepens across the valleys

weather
Jan 151% of the yearDec 31

Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Merced at a glance

  • Today vs. normal: 6°F above the seasonal normal for this latitude
  • Last frost: March 31 (climatological average for this latitude)
  • Microseason: Jul 1–5
  • Planting window: Harvest early potatoes. Begin drying onions on the surface.

ZIP codes: 95340, 95341, 95348

16-Day Forecast — Merced

  1. Sun96°69°16%
  2. Mon95°63°0%
  3. Tue101°56°0%
  4. Wed103°56°0%
  5. Thu107°60°0%
  6. Fri109°62°0%
  7. Sat111°65°0%
  8. Sun110°67°2%
  9. Mon115°75°3%
  10. Tue115°76°7%
  11. Wed95°74°1%
  12. Thu106°69°3%
  13. Fri112°74°3%
  14. Sat119°77°10%
  15. Sun118°80°6%
  16. Mon114°75°3%

Forecast data from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).

Live wind & temperature near Merced

Right now in the garden

Peak growing season

As of July 5, the growing season is at its peak — frost is months away. Continue succession-planting beans and summer squash. Start fall brassicas (broccoli, cabbage, kale) from seed indoors for transplanting in late summer.

January 1–5: New year in coastal mist.January 6–10: Hills hold the winter cold.January 11–15: Light lengthens over wet earth.January 16–20: The green pulse quickens.January 21–25: Spring green spreads inland.January 26–31: Winter's grip releases.February 1–5: Fog lifts, flowers open.February 6–10: Blooms erupt across chaparral.February 11–15: Winter blooms at their peak.February 16–20: Rivers recede, flowers spread.February 21–25: Earth warms, flowers rush upslope.February 26–28: Spring advances on cool winds.March 1–5: Grass and trees bud and break.March 6–10: Insects wake and feed.March 11–15: Blossoms crown the hillsides.March 16–20: Monarch chrysalis emergence.March 21–25: Light overtakes dark at equinox.March 26–31: California poppy ablaze.April 1–5: Spring rain feeds the seedlings.April 6–10: Warblers flood the understory.April 11–15: Allen's hummingbirds in courtship dives.April 16–20: Coastal fog settles; sun breaks midday.April 21–25: Oak canopies full and green.April 26–30: Chaparral awakens after spring rains.May 1–5: Coastal wildflowers at their peak.May 6–10: Gray whales complete their migration north.May 11–15: Redwood coast in cool shade.May 16–20: Fog and sun in daily rhythm.May 21–25: Summer approaches; hills turn gold.May 26–31: Dry season begins; tule fog in valleys.June 1–5: Coastal fog thickens at dawn.June 6–10: California poppies fade as heat rises.June 11–15: Summer solstice light stretched thin.June 16–20: Bay laurel fragrance sweetens shade.June 21–25: Longest daylight, driest air.June 26–30: Fog banks mask the turning tide.July 1–5: Summer heat deepens across the valleys.July 6–10: Warm winds drive dryness inland.July 11–15: Pacific high settles in firmly.July 16–20: Young hawks take to the thermals.July 21–25: Peak fire season, peak heat.July 26–31: Chaparral poised for ignition.August 1–5: August begins in scorching stillness.August 6–10: Autumn's first cool breath arrives.August 11–15: Cool winds signal the turning year.August 16–20: Evening cicada chorus.August 21–25: Marine layer descent.August 26–31: Monarch staging begins.September 1–5: Fire season intensity.September 6–10: Dew on drying grasses.September 11–15: Raptor passage begins.September 16–20: Equinox descent.September 21–25: Ceanothus blooms again.September 26–30: Insects retreat below.October 1–5: Creeks begin to whisper.October 6–10: Santa Ana wind season.October 11–15: Wildflower anticipation.October 16–20: Chaparral embers glow.October 21–25: First atmospheric river looms.October 26–31: Rains return at last.November 1–5: Coast live oak leaves turn amber.November 6–10: California lilac blooms in winter light.November 11–15: First rain greens the chaparral.November 16–20: Coastal fog thickens as storms approach.November 21–25: Thanksgiving rains swell the valleys.November 26–30: Autumn's last breath yields to winter.December 1–5: December arrives, storms accelerate.December 6–10: Winter solstice season intensifies.December 11–15: Deep winter: rivers at flood stage.December 16–20: Winter salmon runs peak in northern rivers.December 21–25: Winter solstice: the sun turns.December 26–31: Year's end in wind and rain.🌱February 14 — First skunk-cabbage spathes thaw their way up☀️March 20 — Spring equinox — day and night balance🌸April 5 — Cherry blossoms peak in the parks🐦May 10 — Warbler migration peaks along the coast✨May 25 — First fireflies scout the meadows at dusk🌞June 21 — Summer solstice — longest day🦗July 25 — Peak cicada chorus in the afternoons🌊August 18 — Warmest sea-surface temperatures of the year🍂September 22 — Autumn equinox — the slow turn❄️October 25 — First widespread frost in the suburbs🍁November 10 — Peak leaf color across the Hudson Valley🌙December 21 — Winter solstice — longest night

Microseason · July 1–5

Summer heat deepens across the valleys

Inland temperatures exceed 95°F regularly; fire danger reaches moderate to high across most of the region.

Day 186 of 365 · Wedge 37 of 72

The solar year drawn as a wheel of 72 five-day windows. Each wedge is one microseason; the four colored arcs mark winter, spring, summer, and autumn; the small icons sit at notable phenological events. The crimson pointer creeps clockwise as the year turns.

Planting calendar

MonthPlantHarvest
January——
February——
March——
Aprillettuce, peas, spinach, radishes—
Maylettuce, peas, spinach, radishes, tomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
Junetomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
Julytomatoes, peppers, beans, squashtomatoes, beans, summer squash
August—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
Septemberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrotstomatoes, beans, summer squash
Octoberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrotswinter squash, tomatoes (last)
November——
December——

A year in weather

Merced's warmest month is July (~78°F mean) and its coldest is December (~46°F). Rainfall peaks in January (2.7 inches) and bottoms out in August (0.0 inches).

MonthMean tempPrecipRainy days
January46°2.7″6
February50°2.2″6
March54°1.9″5
April59°1.0″3
May67°0.6″2
June73°0.1″0
July78°0.0″0
August77°0.0″0
September73°0.1″0
October64°0.7″2
November53°1.2″3
December46°2.0″5

Regional context

In Merced, NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals put January near 46°F and July near 78°F — a 33°F seasonal arc — with about 12.5 inches of precipitation over 32 rainy or snowy days.

Merced's moisture rides winter storm tracks: January brings 2.7 inches over 5.8 wet days, while August sees only 0.0 inches across 0.0 days in the dry warm season. It is a winter-storm rhythm Merced shares with places like Franklin, CA, Bear Creek, CA and University of California-Merced, CA.

Hard freezes are rare in Merced: the coldest month averages 46°F, so Merced's growing window runs most of the year. July is the hottest stretch near 78°F, pushing cool-season crops to the milder shoulder months. Across Merced, elevation and tree cover drive a 4-7°F spread in Merced's overnight lows.

Similar climates: Franklin, CA, Bear Creek, CA, University of California-Merced, CA, Tuttle, CA, McSwain, CA.

Naturalist notes

During late May, valley oaks begin dropping their pollen-heavy catkins across Merced's landscape.

Red-winged blackbirds establish territories in March, with males displaying their scarlet shoulder patches from cattail perches.

Frequently asked

When does it freeze in Merced?
Frost typically leaves Merced by mid-April and returns to Merced near mid-November.
What is the rainy season in Merced?
January is the wettest month in Merced, about 2.7 inches on average; the year totals roughly 13 inches.
What is the warmest month in Merced?
July is Merced's warmest month, averaging about 78°F.
What is the coldest month in Merced?
Merced bottoms out in December, with a mean near 46°F.
When can I start a vegetable garden in Merced?
Time tomatoes in Merced for two weeks after mid-April; peas and greens start at Merced's frost line.
How many rainy days does Merced get?
Merced records around 32 days of measurable precipitation annually.
What hardiness zone is Merced?
Merced's USDA zone comes from its December mean (46°F); enter the ZIP on the USDA lookup for the number.
What is the 10-day forecast for Merced?
Merced's extended outlook — daily high and low temperatures and precipitation chances for each upcoming day — is in the daily forecast above.
Will it rain this week in Merced?
See this week's day-by-day rain chances for Merced in the daily forecast above, and the next 24 hours in the hourly chart.
What is the weather like right now in Merced?
Current conditions for Merced and the next 24 hours — temperature, precipitation chance, and wind by the hour — are in the hourly forecast chart above.
How often is the Merced forecast updated?
The Merced forecast on this page is built from Open-Meteo weather-model data and refreshes regularly through the day.
When are sunrise and sunset in Merced?
Today's sunrise and sunset times for Merced are in the Almanac section above, along with civil dawn, civil dusk, and day length. Day length is longest near the summer solstice and shortest near the winter solstice.
How accurate is the weather forecast for Merced?
The next few days in Merced's forecast are the most reliable; accuracy declines beyond about a week as weather-model uncertainty grows.

Climate

Merced, California has a hot-summer Mediterranean climate: January averages roughly 46°F, July about 78°F, 32°F between them.

In a typical year Merced records about 13 inches of precipitation on around 32 days.

Latitude 37.3°N gives Merced its 32°F swing, and with it the rhythm of Merced's growing season.

All cities in California →

San Jose, CA weather →

ZIP codes in Merced

  • 95348
  • 95340
  • 95341
  • 95343

Climate normals from the Open-Meteo Climate API. Köppen approximation from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Regions. See methodology for data sources, editorial rules, and corrections. Maintainer: Brian Tighe.