Weather StoryAlmanac, microseasons, and the day's weather story.

Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather

Thunderheads boil and break at dusk. Day 16 of summer. Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Chapel Hill weather forecast — hour by hour, 7-day outlook, NOAA radar

Chapel Hill, NC
Monday, July 6 at 3:32 AM
75
°
Clear
Feels like
83°
Humidity
94%
Wind
3 mph
Sunrise
2:05 AM
Sunset
4:35 PM
Chapel Hill, NC
Hour by hour · 24h
24-Hour ForecastChapel Hill, NC: 24-hour forecast. Temperatures range from 73 to 98 degrees Fahrenheit with a 28% chance of precipitation at 7 PM.
L 73°H 98°
Chapel Hill, NC
7-day forecast
  1. Today
    Jul 6
    Overcast
    28%
    —
    98°73°—
  2. Tuesday
    Jul 7
    Drizzle
    61%
    0.03″
    96°76°-2°
  3. Wednesday
    Jul 8
    Light Drizzle
    61%
    —
    98°73°+2°
  4. Thursday
    Jul 9
    Drizzle
    23%
    0.03″
    100°73°+2°
  5. Friday
    Jul 10
    Light Drizzle
    23%
    —
    99°72°-1°
  6. Saturday
    Jul 11
    Light Showers
    38%
    0.20″
    88°73°-11°
  7. Sunday
    Jul 12
    Light Drizzle
    28%
    —
    100°70°+12°
Chapel Hill, NC
Next 24 hours · Mild now
HOT 90°65°85°105°6a12p6p12anow 75°high 98°low 73°PRECIP %
Chapel Hill, NC
Anemometer · 24h winds · from true
NESW
From · True
S
185° · veering 8°
Direction
S
185°
Sustained
3
mph
Gust
5
mph
Peak 24h
18
avg 3 mph
Beaufort · 1 · LIGHT AIR
0
CALM
<1
1
LIGHT AIR
1–3
2
LIGHT BRZ
4–7
3
GENTLE BRZ
8–12
4
MOD BRZ
13–18
5
FRESH BRZ
19–24
6
STRONG BRZ
25–31
7
NEAR GALE
32–38
24h · sust vs gust · mph
avg 3 mph · pk 18 mph @ 4:00p
01020MPHB1B2B3B4B5-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOWpk 165SUSTGUST
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
A whisper of wind — leaves barely shift on the trees.
Chapel Hill, NC
Barometer · 24h pressure · mb
STORMRAINCHANGEFAIRDRY9901000101010201030
Pressure · mb
1001.3
+0.6 mb in 3h · rising · 29.57 inHg
Now
1001.3
mb
3h
+0.6
mb
12h
+1.1
mb
24h
+0.1
mb
Regime · RAIN
STORM
RAIN
CHANGE
FAIR
DRY
24h · Pressure · mb
range 1000–1002
9951000STORM|RAIN10051010RAIN|CHG1015CHG|FAIR10201025FAIR|DRY1030-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOW1002.3999.71001.3
Damp, unsettled regime — wet weather lingers nearby.
Chapel Hill, NC
Air quality
44
AQI
Good
→-1 in 6h▲Peak ~51 @ 1 PM

AQI 44 (Good), driven by PM2.5. AQI flat over the last 6 hours (within ±3 points). PM2.5 at 11.5 µg/m³ (AQI 55) with a 0.97 fine-to-coarse ratio and 3 mph wind — combustion smoke trapped in stagnant air, not road dust.

OK No precautions needed for the general population; unusually sensitive individuals may consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion during the projected peak around 1 PM.

PM 2.5DRIVERGood
11.5μg/m³
PM 10Good
12μg/m³
NO₂Good
3μg/m³
OzoneModerate
67μg/m³
UV IndexLow
0.0

What's driving it

Ozone × UV × Sky

Ozone at AQI 32. Overcast through the UV peak window (cloud cover ~87%) — afternoon ozone should stay flat.

Present
AQI 32
UV peak
3.3 at 1 PM
Sky at peak
overcast
Projected peak
AQI 7

PM × Wind × Precip

PM2.5 at 11.5 µg/m³ (AQI 55) with a 0.97 fine-to-coarse ratio and 3 mph wind — combustion smoke trapped in stagnant air, not road dust.

PM2.5/PM10
0.97
Wind
calm
Recent rain
0h in last 6h
Pattern
stagnant smoke

Trends

Seven days of AQI and PM2.5.

Hourly air-quality data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, charted across the past and next several days. Dashed lines mark the AQI breakpoints at 50 (Good → Moderate) and 100 (Moderate → Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups).

7-DAY AQI TREND50100MONTUEWEDTHUFRISATSUNMON7-DAY PM2.5 TREND · μg/m³300
Chapel Hill, NC
Sky cover · visibility · 24h
Cloud cover
1%
CLEAR
100%0%−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Visibility
27.9mi
UNLIMITED
100 mi0 mi−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Earth · GOES-19 ABI
Full Disk · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 full disk Visible · GeoColor
True-color daytime, blue/IR sandwich at night
07:32 UTC · Chapel Hill, NC · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · up to 10848 px
Continental US · GOES-19 ABI
CONUS Sector · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 CONUS Visible · GeoColor
Daytime true-color, blue-light/IR sandwich at night
07:32 UTC · Chapel Hill, NC · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · 5-min cadence · up to 10000 px
Chapel Hill, NC
Satellite · infrared · animated
Chapel Hill, NC
Loading IR frames…
IR · cloud-top temp© RainViewer · Carto
Chapel Hill, NC
Almanac · Monday, July 6
When the stars begin to huddle, the earth will soon become a puddle.
Civil dawn
5:36 AM
Sunrise
2:05 AM
Daylight
14h 30m
Sunset
4:35 PM
Civil dusk
9:07 PM
Planting note
Sow fall broccoli and cabbage indoors for transplant in 4 weeks.
Chapel Hill, NC
The moon
Last Quarter
65% illuminated
Moonrise
11:56 PM
Moonset
12:32 PM
In sign
♓︎ Pisces
Chapel Hill, NC
Microseason
Jul 6–10

Thunderheads boil and break at dusk

weather
Jan 151% of the yearDec 31

Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Chapel Hill at a glance

  • Today vs. normal: 75°F — typical for the season
  • Last frost: March 23 (climatological average for this latitude)
  • Microseason: Jul 6–10
  • Planting window: Sow fall broccoli and cabbage indoors for transplant in 4 weeks.

ZIP codes: 27514, 27516, 27517, 27599

15-Day Forecast — Chapel Hill

  1. Mon98°73°28%
  2. Tue96°76°61%
  3. Wed98°73°61%
  4. Thu100°73°23%
  5. Fri99°72°23%
  6. Sat88°73°38%
  7. Sun100°70°28%
  8. Mon99°73°26%
  9. Tue105°75°17%
  10. Wed107°71°17%
  11. Thu94°71°17%
  12. Fri91°64°39%
  13. Sat84°67°50%
  14. Sun83°65°65%
  15. Mon73°64°58%

Forecast data from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).

Live wind & temperature near Chapel Hill

Right now in the garden

Peak growing season

As of July 6, the growing season is at its peak — frost is months away. Continue succession-planting beans and summer squash. Start fall brassicas (broccoli, cabbage, kale) from seed indoors for transplanting in late summer.

SPC Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center — Chapel Hill

SPC has placed Chapel Hill in the Marginal Risk category for severe thunderstorms today.

  • TODAYMRGLMarginal Risk
  • TOMORROWMRGLMarginal Risk
  • DAY 3TSTMGeneral Thunderstorms

Isolated severe storms possible. Limited threat for hail or damaging wind.

Source: NOAA / NWS Storm Prediction Center categorical convective outlook. Outlooks are re-issued multiple times per day; this page reflects the most recent SPC polygons covering the city’s coordinates.

January 1–5: Frost quiets the live oaks.January 6–10: Still water thickens with ice.January 11–15: Springs begin to move beneath ice.January 16–20: Cardinal dawn calls grow bolder.January 21–25: Late January thaw pulses.January 26–31: Last freeze locks the land.February 1–5: February's lengthening light.February 6–10: Warming winds thaw the margin.February 11–15: Magnolia blooms break the gray.February 16–20: Mockingbirds resume the dawn chorus.February 21–25: Rain replaces the last snow.February 26–28: Mist clings to greening valleys.March 1–5: The green pulse awakens.March 6–10: Hibernators emerge to call.March 11–15: Dogwood and redbud ignite.March 16–20: Swallowtails emerge from winter silk.March 21–25: Light crowns the dogwood canopy.March 26–31: Redbud cascades over the thaw.April 1–5: Thunder announces the wet season.April 6–10: Barn swallows carve the warming sky.April 11–15: Magnolia blooms and falls in a breath.April 16–20: First rainbows arch over thunderheads.April 21–25: Reeds push through marsh water.April 26–30: Frost retreats; seedlings rise free.May 1–5: Warblers flood the canopy in waves.May 6–10: Tulip poplar lights the forest crown.May 11–15: Shad pulse upstream through rapids.May 16–20: Roses open on the Piedmont edge.May 21–25: Fireflies scout the humid dusk.May 26–31: Frog choruses rise from every wetland.June 1–5: Fireflies pulse through the magnolias.June 6–10: Kudzu climbs deeper into green.June 11–15: Sun climbs to its northern throne.June 16–20: Heat settles and the rain begins.June 21–25: The longest day turns toward shadow.June 26–30: Fireflies drift through Spanish moss.July 1–5: Cicadas claim the scorching afternoon.July 6–10: Thunderheads boil and break at dusk.July 11–15: Thunder builds each drowsy afternoon.July 16–20: Cicadas claim the long noon.July 21–25: Dog days drape the earth in haze.July 26–31: Katydids begin their rasping chorus.August 1–5: Dusk arrives one minute earlier each night.August 6–10: Meteorological summer's turning page.August 11–15: Cool winds gather at the margins.August 16–20: Dog-day cicadas rise.August 21–25: Heat breaks in creek beds.August 26–31: Monarchs gather strength.September 1–5: Harvests begin in earnest.September 6–10: Dew beads on resurrection fern.September 11–15: Raptors trail the thermals.September 16–20: Day and dark find balance.September 21–25: Thunder quiets the land.September 26–30: Insects retreat below.October 1–5: Swamp waters recede.October 6–10: Maples ignite the ridge.October 11–15: Asters crown the meadows.October 16–20: Crickets sing at dusk.October 21–25: Frost paints the garden.October 26–31: Light rains whisper down.November 1–5: Sweetgum Turns Crimson.November 6–10: Camellia Blooms Break Through.November 11–15: Earth Stiffens Underfoot.November 16–20: Bare Limbs Hold the Light.November 21–25: First Frost Grips the High Ground.November 26–30: North Wind Strips the Last Leaves.December 1–5: Darkness Falls Before Dinner.December 6–10: Winter Locks the Land.December 11–15: Wildlife Retreats to Shelter.December 16–20: Ice Edges Deepen Inward.December 21–25: The Sun Begins its Return.December 26–31: The Year Turns in Silence.🌱February 14 — First skunk-cabbage spathes thaw their way up☀️March 20 — Spring equinox — day and night balance🌸April 5 — Cherry blossoms peak in the parks🐦May 10 — Warbler migration peaks along the coast✨May 25 — First fireflies scout the meadows at dusk🌞June 21 — Summer solstice — longest day🦗July 25 — Peak cicada chorus in the afternoons🌊August 18 — Warmest sea-surface temperatures of the year🍂September 22 — Autumn equinox — the slow turn❄️October 25 — First widespread frost in the suburbs🍁November 10 — Peak leaf color across the Hudson Valley🌙December 21 — Winter solstice — longest night

Microseason · July 6–10

Thunderheads boil and break at dusk

Bermuda High dominates; afternoon convection builds daily, producing violent but brief thunderstorms by evening.

Day 187 of 365 · Wedge 38 of 72

The solar year drawn as a wheel of 72 five-day windows. Each wedge is one microseason; the four colored arcs mark winter, spring, summer, and autumn; the small icons sit at notable phenological events. The crimson pointer creeps clockwise as the year turns.

Planting calendar

MonthPlantHarvest
January——
February——
Marchlettuce, peas, spinach, radishes—
Aprillettuce, peas, spinach, radishes, tomatoes, peppers, beans, squash—
Maytomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
Junetomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
July—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
August—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
September—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
Octoberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrotswinter squash, tomatoes (last)
Novemberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrots—
December——

A year in weather

Chapel Hill's warmest month is July (~78°F mean) and its coldest is January (~38°F). Rainfall peaks in June (5.2 inches) and bottoms out in February (2.9 inches).

MonthMean tempPrecipRainy days
January38°4.0″6
February41°2.9″6
March49°4.5″8
April58°3.7″7
May66°3.8″7
June74°5.2″7
July78°4.2″7
August76°5.2″7
September70°4.7″5
October59°3.4″5
November49°3.6″5
December42°3.3″6

Regional context

Per NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals, Chapel Hill runs from a 38°F January mean to 78°F in July, a 40°F seasonal spread, with near 48.6 inches of precipitation across about 77 wet days.

No season owns Chapel Hill's rain: June reaches 5.2 inches across 7.4 days and February keeps 2.9 inches on 6.2, an even spread through Chapel Hill's year. It is a balanced pattern Chapel Hill shares with places like Carrboro, NC, Carolina Meadows, NC and Governors Village, NC.

Around mid-March, Chapel Hill sheds its freezing nights — peas, lettuce, spinach, and radishes go into Chapel Hill's beds. Tomatoes and peppers do best set out two weeks later in Chapel Hill, once nights clear the mid-40s°F. By mid-December, frost is back in Chapel Hill — protect or harvest anything tender. A creek-bottom lot in Chapel Hill can lag Chapel Hill's last frost 7-10 days behind a south slope.

Similar climates: Carrboro, NC, Carolina Meadows, NC, Governors Village, NC, Governors Club, NC, Briar Chapel, NC.

Frequently asked

When does it freeze in Chapel Hill?
In Chapel Hill, expect the last spring frost near mid-March; Chapel Hill's first autumn frost comes around mid-December.
What is the rainy season in Chapel Hill?
June is the wettest month in Chapel Hill, about 5.2 inches on average; the year totals roughly 49 inches.
What is the warmest month in Chapel Hill?
On average July tops the year in Chapel Hill at about 78°F.
What is the coldest month in Chapel Hill?
The coldest stretch in Chapel Hill falls in January, around 38°F on average.
When can I start a vegetable garden in Chapel Hill?
Hardy spring crops go in near mid-March in Chapel Hill; tender peppers and squash wait 10–14 days.
How many rainy days does Chapel Hill get?
Chapel Hill averages about 77 days with measurable rain or snow each year.
What hardiness zone is Chapel Hill?
Since January in Chapel Hill averages 38°F, Chapel Hill's USDA zone follows that floor — confirm it by ZIP.
What is the 10-day forecast for Chapel Hill?
Chapel Hill's extended outlook — daily high and low temperatures and precipitation chances for each upcoming day — is in the daily forecast above.
Will it rain this week in Chapel Hill?
See this week's day-by-day rain chances for Chapel Hill in the daily forecast above, and the next 24 hours in the hourly chart.
What is the weather like right now in Chapel Hill?
Current conditions for Chapel Hill and the next 24 hours — temperature, precipitation chance, and wind by the hour — are in the hourly forecast chart above.
How often is the Chapel Hill forecast updated?
The Chapel Hill forecast on this page is built from Open-Meteo weather-model data and refreshes regularly through the day.
When are sunrise and sunset in Chapel Hill?
Today's sunrise and sunset times for Chapel Hill are in the Almanac section above, along with civil dawn, civil dusk, and day length. Day length is longest near the summer solstice and shortest near the winter solstice.
How accurate is the weather forecast for Chapel Hill?
The next few days in Chapel Hill's forecast are the most reliable; accuracy declines beyond about a week as weather-model uncertainty grows.

Climate

In Chapel Hill, North Carolina, the humid subtropical climate runs from about 38°F in January to 78°F in July, a 40°F seasonal range.

Chapel Hill sees close to 49 inches of precipitation annually, falling across some 77 wet days.

Chapel Hill's 40°F range, set by its 35.9°N position, drives frost timing and what thrives in Chapel Hill.

All cities in North Carolina →

Durham, NC weather →

ZIP codes in Chapel Hill

  • 27599
  • 27516
  • 27514
  • 27517
  • 27515

Climate normals from the Open-Meteo Climate API. Köppen approximation from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Regions. See methodology for data sources, editorial rules, and corrections. Maintainer: Brian Tighe.