Surprise, Arizona Weather

Thunder finally silent. Day 93 of summer. Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Surprise weather forecast — hour by hour, 7-day outlook, NOAA radar

Surprise, AZ
Monday, September 21 at 7:24 AM
78
°
Overcast
Feels like
78°
Humidity
41%
Wind
2 mph
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
6:27 PM

Conditions updated 7:24 AM MST · Open-Meteo

Surprise, AZ
Hour by hour · 24h
24-Hour ForecastSurprise, AZ: 24-hour forecast. Temperatures range from 72 to 99 degrees Fahrenheit.
L 72°H 99°
Surprise, AZ
7-day forecast
  1. Today
    Sep 21
    Clear later
    99°77°
  2. Tuesday
    Sep 22
    Clear
    95°72°-4°
  3. Wednesday
    Sep 23
    Overcast
    92°76°-3°
  4. Thursday
    Sep 24
    Light Drizzle
    14%
    96°79°+4°
  5. Friday
    Sep 25
    Heavy Drizzle
    13%
    95°78°-1°
  6. Saturday
    Sep 26
    Partly Cloudy
    99°82°+4°
  7. Sunday
    Sep 27
    Overcast
    18%
    89°79°-10°
Surprise, AZ
Anemometer · 24h winds · from true
NESW
From · True
NW
315° · backing 121°
Direction
NW
315°
Sustained
2
mph
Gust
10
mph
Peak 24h
18
avg 5 mph
Beaufort · 1 · LIGHT AIR
0
CALM
<1
1
LIGHT AIR
1–3
2
LIGHT BRZ
4–7
3
GENTLE BRZ
8–12
4
MOD BRZ
13–18
5
FRESH BRZ
19–24
6
STRONG BRZ
25–31
7
NEAR GALE
32–38
24h · sust vs gust · mph
avg 5 mph · pk 18 mph @ 8:00a
01020MPHB1B2B3B4B5-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOWpk 208SUSTGUST
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Light breeze backing 121° from the nw.
Surprise, AZ
Barometer · 24h pressure · mb
STORMRAINCHANGEFAIRDRY9901000101010201030
Pressure · mb
1011.4
+1.7 mb in 3h · rising · 29.87 inHg
Now
1011.4
mb
3h
+1.7
mb
12h
+2.7
mb
24h
-0.6
mb
Regime · CHANGE
STORM
RAIN
CHANGE
FAIR
DRY
24h · Pressure · mb
range 10081013
1000STORM|RAIN10051010RAIN|CHG1015CHG|FAIR10201025FAIR|DRY1030-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOW1012.51008.31011.3
Pressure climbing through the change line — drier air pushing in.
Air quality now AQI 54 · Moderate
Surprise, AZ
Air quality
54
AQI
Moderate
0 in 6h

AQI 54 (Moderate), driven by PM2.5. AQI flat over the last 6 hours (within ±3 points). PM2.5 at 10.3 µg/m³, PM10 at 30.4 µg/m³ — typical background levels with no transport signature.

OK No precautions needed for the general population; unusually sensitive individuals may consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

PM 2.5DRIVERGood
10.3μg/m³
PM 10Good
30μg/m³
NO₂Good
14μg/m³
OzoneGood
17μg/m³
UV IndexLow
0.2

What's driving it

PM × Wind × Precip

PM2.5 at 10.3 µg/m³, PM10 at 30.4 µg/m³ — typical background levels with no transport signature.

PM2.5/PM10
0.34
Wind
calm
Recent rain
0h in last 6h
Pattern
background
Surprise, AZ
Sky cover · visibility · 24h
Cloud cover
100%
OVERCAST
100%0%−24h−18h−12h−6hnow

Visibility
29.6mi
UNLIMITED
57 mi0 mi−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Surprise, AZ
Almanac · Monday, September 21
September dries up ditches or breaks down bridges.
Civil dawn
5:53 AM
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Daylight
12h 10m
Sunset
6:27 PM
Civil dusk
6:54 PM
Planting note
September — plant beans, squash, fall brassicas, carrots; harvest summer squash, winter squash
Surprise, AZ
The moon
Waxing Gibbous
75% illuminated
Moonrise
3:48 PM
Moonset
1:13 AM
In sign
♑︎ Capricorn
Surprise, AZ
Microseason
Sep 21–25

Thunder finally silent

weather
Jan 172% of the yearDec 31

Read this microseason across nine climate regions →
All 72 microseasons on the year wheel →

Surprise at a glance

  • Today vs. normal: Today averages 88°F (high 99°F, low 77°F), 7°F above the 81°F normal for Sep 21
  • Last frost: February 5 (1991–2020 median, NOAA station 13 km away)
  • Microseason: Sep 21–25
  • Planting calendar: September — plant beans, squash, fall brassicas, carrots; harvest summer squash, winter squash

16-Day Forecast — Surprise

  1. Mon99°77°2%
  2. Tue95°72°2%
  3. Wed92°76°6%
  4. Thu96°79°14%
  5. Fri95°78°13%
  6. Sat99°82°5%
  7. Sun89°79°18%
  8. Mon95°78°19%
  9. Tue98°82°10%
  10. Wed101°82°12%
  11. Thu102°84°7%
  12. Fri101°86°16%
  13. Sat97°82°10%
  14. Sun97°80°11%
  15. Mon93°72°11%
  16. Tue85°77°3%

Forecast data from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).

Live wind & temperature near Surprise

Interactive wind and temperature map centered on Surprise — it loads in your browser. Open the full weather map.

Right now in the garden

Peak growing season

As of September 21, the growing season is at its peak — the first frost (around December 11) is weeks away. Fall transplants go in about 10–12 weeks before the first frost, September 18 to October 2 here. This city's planting calendar for September: plant beans, squash, fall brassicas, and carrots; harvest summer squash and winter squash.

SPC Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center — Surprise

SPC includes Surprise in the general thunderstorm area tomorrow — no severe risk, but storms are possible.

  • TODAYNONENo severe risk
  • TOMORROWTSTMGeneral Thunderstorms
  • DAY 3NONENo severe risk

Thunderstorms possible. Not severe, but capable of producing lightning and brief heavy rain.

Source: NOAA / NWS Storm Prediction Center categorical convective outlook.

Sun & seasons in Surprise

Surprise sits in Maricopa County, where the year’s longest day runs 14h 24m of daylight and its shortest just 9h 55m — a swing of +4h 29m between the June and December solstices.

Phoenix, the state’s largest city, lies about 22 miles to the ESE. The nearest town Surprise tracks is Peoria, roughly 11 miles to the NE.

Air quality in Surprise

Air quality in Surprise’s county has trended cleaner since 2020; its cleanest year on record was 2023 (median AQI 72). See the full air-quality history for Surprise.

Planting calendar

MonthPlantHarvest
Januarylettuce, peas, spinach, radishesfall brassicas, carrots
Februarylettuce, peas, spinach, radisheslettuce, spinach, radishes
Marchtomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, spinach, radishes
Apriltomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, spinach
Maysquashpeas, beans, summer squash, garlic
Junesquashtomatoes, peppers, beans, summer squash, winter squash
Julybeans, squashtomatoes, summer squash, winter squash
Augusttomatoes, peppers, beans, squashsummer squash, winter squash
Septemberbeans, squash, fall brassicas, carrotssummer squash, winter squash
Octoberpeppers, beans, summer squash, winter squash
Novembergarlic (overwinter)tomatoes, peppers, beans, summer squash, winter squash
Decembertomatoes, peppers, beans, summer squash, winter squash, fall brassicas, carrots

A year in weather

The year in Surprise tops out in July (~91°F) and dips lowest in December (~52°F), with February wettest at 1.4 inches and June driest at 0.1 inches.

MonthMean tempPrecipRainy days
January52°1.42
February55°1.43
March60°1.01
April66°0.31
May76°0.10
June86°0.10
July91°0.93
August90°1.13
September84°1.12
October72°0.71
November60°0.72
December52°0.92

Regional context

Similar climates Sun City West, AZ, Wittmann, AZ, El Mirage, AZ

Drawing on NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals, Surprise's January averages 52°F and July 91°F — 39°F apart — while precipitation totals roughly 9.6 inches over some 19 days.

Cool-season fronts carry Surprise's rain: February logs 1.4 inches on 2.7 days, against June's 0.1 inches on 0.1 — winter does the heavy lifting in Surprise. It is a winter-storm rhythm Surprise shares with places like Sun City West, AZ, Wittmann, AZ and El Mirage, AZ.

The cool-season window in Surprise starts at February 5, when nights stop freezing — think lettuce, chard, arugula, and mustard greens. Warm-soil crops in Surprise wait about two weeks past Surprise's last frost, once the soil warms. Around December 11, freezing nights resume in Surprise and tender crops must come in. In about half of years, Surprise's last freeze comes after February 5.

Similar climates: Sun City West, AZ, Wittmann, AZ, El Mirage, AZ, Citrus Park, AZ, Sun City, AZ.

Frequently asked

When does it freeze in Surprise?
Frost typically leaves Surprise by February 5 and returns to Surprise near December 11.
What is the rainy season in Surprise?
Surprise sees its heaviest rain in February (around 1.4 inches), part of roughly 10 inches a year.
What is the warmest month in Surprise?
The warmest stretch in Surprise comes in July, around 91°F on average.
What is the coldest month in Surprise?
On average December is the chilliest month in Surprise, about 52°F.
When can I start a vegetable garden in Surprise?
Time tomatoes in Surprise for two weeks after February 5; peas and greens start at Surprise's frost line.
How many rainy days does Surprise get?
Surprise averages about 19 days with measurable rain or snow each year.
What hardiness zone is Surprise?
Surprise's hardiness zone tracks its winter low; with December near 52°F, check the USDA ZIP map for the exact zone.
What is the 10-day forecast for Surprise?
Surprise's extended outlook — daily high and low temperatures and precipitation chances for each upcoming day — is in the daily forecast above.
Will it rain this week in Surprise?
See this week's day-by-day rain chances for Surprise in the daily forecast above, and the next 24 hours in the hourly chart.
What is the weather like right now in Surprise?
Current conditions for Surprise and the next 24 hours — temperature, precipitation chance, and wind by the hour — are in the hourly forecast chart above.
How often is the Surprise forecast updated?
The Surprise forecast on this page is built from Open-Meteo weather-model data and refreshes regularly through the day.
When are sunrise and sunset in Surprise?
Today's sunrise and sunset times for Surprise are in the Almanac section above, along with civil dawn, civil dusk, and day length. Day length is longest near the summer solstice and shortest near the winter solstice.
How accurate is the weather forecast for Surprise?
The next few days in Surprise's forecast are the most reliable; accuracy declines beyond about a week as weather-model uncertainty grows.

Surprise sits at 33.7°N; its climate zone is hot desert (Köppen approximation).

ZIP codes in Surprise

  • 85361
  • 85374
  • 85378
  • 85379
  • 85387
  • 85388

Climate normals: NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 normals from the nearest station. Köppen approximation from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Regions. See methodology for data sources, editorial rules, and corrections. Maintainer: Brian Tighe.