Weather StoryAlmanac, microseasons, and the day's weather story.

Surprise, Arizona Weather

The monsoon settles in. Day 15 of summer. Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Surprise weather forecast — hour by hour, 7-day outlook, NOAA radar

Surprise, AZ
Sunday, July 5 at 8:08 AM
94
°
Clear
Feels like
90°
Humidity
11%
Wind
2 mph
Sunrise
10:25 PM
Sunset
12:43 PM
Surprise, AZ
Hour by hour · 24h
24-Hour ForecastSurprise, AZ: 24-hour forecast. Temperatures range from 83 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit.
L 83°H 110°
Surprise, AZ
7-day forecast
  1. Today
    Jul 5
    Overcast
    —
    —
    110°82°—
  2. Monday
    Jul 6
    Overcast
    —
    —
    108°83°-2°
  3. Tuesday
    Jul 7
    Overcast
    —
    —
    110°84°+2°
  4. Wednesday
    Jul 8
    Clear
    —
    —
    110°82°0°
  5. Thursday
    Jul 9
    Clear
    —
    —
    109°82°-1°
  6. Friday
    Jul 10
    Overcast
    —
    —
    106°79°-3°
  7. Saturday
    Jul 11
    Mostly Clear
    —
    —
    108°79°+2°
Surprise, AZ
Next 24 hours · Hot now
HOT 90°75°95°115°6a12p6p12anow 94°high 110°low 83°
Surprise, AZ
Anemometer · 24h winds · from true
NESW
From · True
NNW
344° · backing 106°
Direction
NNW
344°
Sustained
2
mph
Gust
5
mph
Peak 24h
17
avg 7
Beaufort · 1 · LIGHT AIR
0
CALM
<1
1
LIGHT AIR
1–3
2
LIGHT BRZ
4–7
3
GENTLE BRZ
8–12
4
MOD BRZ
13–18
5
FRESH BRZ
19–24
6
STRONG BRZ
25–31
7
NEAR GALE
32–38
24h · sust vs gust · mph
avg 7 · pk 17 @ 4:00p
01020MPHB1B2B3B4B5-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOWpk 166SUSTGUST
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
A whisper of wind — leaves barely shift on the trees.
Surprise, AZ
Barometer · 24h pressure · mb
STORMRAINCHANGEFAIRDRY9901000101010201030
Pressure · mb
964.3
+2.3 mb in 3h · rising rapidly · 28.48 inHg
Now
964.3
mb
3h
+2.3
mb
12h
+0.6
mb
24h
-1.7
mb
Regime · STORM
STORM
RAIN
CHANGE
FAIR
DRY
24h · Pressure · mb
range 962–967
955960965970975-21h-18h-15h-12h-9h-6h-3h-24hNOW966.6961.9964.3
−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
The low is filling — pressure climbing out of storm territory.
Surprise, AZ
Air quality
55
AQI
Moderate
→+1 in 6h

AQI 55 (Moderate), driven by PM2.5. AQI flat over the last 6 hours (within ±3 points). PM2.5 at 13.0 µg/m³, PM10 at 25.4 µg/m³ — typical background levels with no transport signature.

OK No precautions needed for the general population; unusually sensitive individuals may consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

PM 2.5DRIVERModerate
13.0μg/m³
PM 10Good
25μg/m³
NO₂Good
7μg/m³
OzoneModerate
74μg/m³
UV IndexModerate
2.4

What's driving it

Ozone × UV × Sky

Ozone at AQI 35 now. With UV 8.0 peaking around 1 PM under partly cloudy skies, surface ozone likely climbs to AQI 26 around 1 PM.

Present
AQI 35
UV peak
8.0 at 1 PM
Sky at peak
partly cloudy
Projected peak
AQI 26

PM × Wind × Precip

PM2.5 at 13.0 µg/m³, PM10 at 25.4 µg/m³ — typical background levels with no transport signature.

PM2.5/PM10
0.51
Wind
calm
Recent rain
0h in last 6h
Pattern
background

Trends

Seven days of AQI and PM2.5.

Hourly air-quality data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, charted across the past and next several days. Dashed lines mark the AQI breakpoints at 50 (Good → Moderate) and 100 (Moderate → Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups).

7-DAY AQI TREND50100SUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATSUN7-DAY PM2.5 TREND · μg/m³340
Surprise, AZ
Sky cover · visibility · 24h
Cloud cover
3%
CLEAR
100%0%−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Visibility
183.5mi
UNLIMITED
185 mi0 mi−24h−18h−12h−6hnow
Earth · GOES-19 ABI
Full Disk · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 full disk Visible · GeoColor
True-color daytime, blue/IR sandwich at night
15:08 UTC · Surprise, AZ · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · up to 10848 px
Continental US · GOES-19 ABI
CONUS Sector · Visible · GeoColor
GOES-19 CONUS Visible · GeoColor
Daytime true-color, blue-light/IR sandwich at night
15:08 UTC · Surprise, AZ · NOAA NESDIS / STAR · 5-min cadence · up to 10000 px
Surprise, AZ
Satellite · infrared · animated
Surprise, AZ
Loading IR frames…
IR · cloud-top temp© RainViewer · Carto
Surprise, AZ
Almanac · Sunday, July 5
If the first of July be rainy weather, 'twill rain more or less for four weeks together.
Civil dawn
4:57 AM
Sunrise
10:25 PM
Daylight
14h 18m
Sunset
12:43 PM
Civil dusk
8:13 PM
Planting note
Harvest early potatoes. Begin drying onions on the surface.
Surprise, AZ
The moon
Waning Gibbous
72% illuminated
Moonrise
10:46 PM
Moonset
10:48 AM
In sign
♓︎ Pisces
Surprise, AZ
Microseason
Jul 1–5

The monsoon settles in

insect
Jan 151% of the yearDec 31

Read this microseason across nine climate regions →

Surprise at a glance

  • Today vs. normal: 16°F above the seasonal normal for this latitude
  • Last frost: March 9 (climatological average for this latitude)
  • Microseason: Jul 1–5
  • Planting window: Harvest early potatoes. Begin drying onions on the surface.

ZIP codes: 85374, 85378, 85379, 85387, 85388

16-Day Forecast — Surprise

  1. Sun109°83°2%
  2. Mon108°83°2%
  3. Tue110°84°0%
  4. Wed110°82°0%
  5. Thu109°82°0%
  6. Fri106°79°2%
  7. Sat108°79°2%
  8. Sun109°80°7%
  9. Mon111°79°14%
  10. Tue105°80°14%
  11. Wed104°79°12%
  12. Thu109°85°19%
  13. Fri116°92°26%
  14. Sat116°95°27%
  15. Sun112°89°23%
  16. Mon116°86°23%

Forecast data from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).

Live wind & temperature near Surprise

Right now in the garden

Peak growing season

As of July 5, the growing season is at its peak — frost is months away. Continue succession-planting beans and summer squash. Start fall brassicas (broccoli, cabbage, kale) from seed indoors for transplanting in late summer.

January 1–5: Desert awakens in still light.January 6–10: Moisture lingers beneath the crust.January 11–15: First warmth breaks the shallow freeze.January 16–20: Quail begin their territorial chorus.January 21–25: Buds swell beneath the hard sun.January 26–31: Winter reaches its brightest point.February 1–5: Gold floods the bajada.February 6–10: Wildflower bloom spreads upslope.February 11–15: Hummingbirds stake territory claims.February 16–20: Sonoran wildflowers reach peak diversity.February 21–25: Rain clouds gather on the horizon.February 26–28: Late winter warmth intensifies.March 1–5: Green reaches from the roots upward.March 6–10: Desert creatures wake fully from dormancy.March 11–15: Saguaro flowers crown the desert.March 16–20: Caterpillars turn to wings.March 21–25: Equinox ignites the blooms.March 26–31: Saguaro crowns with flowers.April 1–5: Pre-monsoon heat begins.April 6–10: Brittlebush carpets the desert floor.April 11–15: Heat dome settles in hard.April 16–20: Saguaro fruit splits open red.April 21–25: Monsoon moisture approaches.April 26–30: Last frost recedes to memory.May 1–5: Monsoon signal fires light skies.May 6–10: First haboobs roll across.May 11–15: Heat reaches extremes daily.May 16–20: Saguaro crowns open white.May 21–25: Summer arrives in dust and lightning.May 26–31: Voices rise in monsoon dark.June 1–5: Heat hardens the dust.June 6–10: Monsoon shadows gather.June 11–15: The dry breath stills.June 16–20: The first anvil tops.June 21–25: Haboob rises from the basin.June 26–30: Monsoon doors creak open.July 1–5: The monsoon settles in.July 6–10: Verdant eruption.July 11–15: The lightning oracle speaks.July 16–20: Young raptors claim the thermal.July 21–25: Humidity weight.July 26–31: Storm chambers fruit.August 1–5: The monsoon exhales.August 6–10: The long drought renews.August 11–15: Currents turn cool and distant.August 16–20: Cicada chorus deepens.August 21–25: Monsoon's final breath.August 26–31: Heat begins to relent.September 1–5: Harvest moon over stone.September 6–10: Dew returns to the flats.September 11–15: Raptors ride the thermals.September 16–20: Equinox evening shadow.September 21–25: Thunder finally silent.September 26–30: Insects burrow deep.October 1–5: Desert dries to deep gold.October 6–10: Sandhill cranes return.October 11–15: Brittle beauty blooms.October 16–20: Frost paints stones white.October 21–25: First killing frost falls.October 26–31: Winter rains whisper in.November 1–5: Mesquite leaves turn gold.November 6–10: Ocotillo stands sentinel.November 11–15: First frost traces ridges.November 16–20: Saguaro stands naked.November 21–25: Pacific storms break the drought.November 26–30: North wind strips the way.December 1–5: Desert deepens into winter.December 6–10: True winter arrives.December 11–15: The shortest day looms.December 16–20: Solstice stillness settles.December 21–25: The sun turns north.December 26–31: Year's end in silence.🌱February 14 — First skunk-cabbage spathes thaw their way up☀️March 20 — Spring equinox — day and night balance🌸April 5 — Cherry blossoms peak in the parks🐦May 10 — Warbler migration peaks along the coast✨May 25 — First fireflies scout the meadows at dusk🌞June 21 — Summer solstice — longest day🦗July 25 — Peak cicada chorus in the afternoons🌊August 18 — Warmest sea-surface temperatures of the year🍂September 22 — Autumn equinox — the slow turn❄️October 25 — First widespread frost in the suburbs🍁November 10 — Peak leaf color across the Hudson Valley🌙December 21 — Winter solstice — longest night

Microseason · July 1–5

The monsoon settles in

Afternoon thunderstorms now daily ritual. Rains transform the desert green within 72 hours. Dust clears; air smells alive. Microburst winds flatten entire sections of mesquite.

Day 186 of 365 · Wedge 37 of 72

The solar year drawn as a wheel of 72 five-day windows. Each wedge is one microseason; the four colored arcs mark winter, spring, summer, and autumn; the small icons sit at notable phenological events. The crimson pointer creeps clockwise as the year turns.

Planting calendar

MonthPlantHarvest
January——
February——
Marchlettuce, peas, spinach, radishes—
Aprillettuce, peas, spinach, radishes, tomatoes, peppers, beans, squash—
Maytomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
Junetomatoes, peppers, beans, squashlettuce, peas, radishes
July—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
August—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
September—tomatoes, beans, summer squash
Octoberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrotswinter squash, tomatoes (last)
Novemberfall brassicas, garlic (overwinter), carrots—
December——

A year in weather

The year in Surprise tops out in July (~91°F) and dips lowest in December (~52°F), with February wettest at 1.4 inches and June driest at 0.1 inches.

MonthMean tempPrecipRainy days
January52°1.4″2
February55°1.4″3
March60°1.0″1
April66°0.3″1
May76°0.1″0
June86°0.1″0
July91°0.9″3
August90°1.1″3
September84°1.1″2
October72°0.7″1
November60°0.7″2
December52°0.9″2

Regional context

Drawing on NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals, Surprise's January averages 52°F and July 91°F — 39°F apart — while precipitation totals roughly 9.6 inches over some 19 days.

Cool-season fronts carry Surprise's rain: February logs 1.4 inches on 2.7 days, against June's 0.1 inches on 0.1 — winter does the heavy lifting in Surprise. It is a winter-storm rhythm Surprise shares with places like Sun City West, AZ, Wittmann, AZ and El Mirage, AZ.

Freezes are uncommon in Surprise, where the coldest month averages 52°F; cool-season crops grow fall through spring. Summer heat in July (about 91°F) is the binding constraint, not cold. Across Surprise, elevation and tree cover drive a 4-7°F spread in Surprise's overnight lows.

Similar climates: Sun City West, AZ, Wittmann, AZ, El Mirage, AZ, Citrus Park, AZ, Sun City, AZ.

Naturalist notes

Palo verde trees burst into yellow bloom across Surprise during April, their bright flowers appearing before the desert heat peaks.

House finches begin their second nesting cycle in May, taking advantage of moderate temperatures before summer's intensity.

Frequently asked

When does it freeze in Surprise?
Frost typically leaves Surprise by mid-March and returns to Surprise near mid-December.
What is the rainy season in Surprise?
Surprise sees its heaviest rain in February (around 1.4 inches), part of roughly 10 inches a year.
What is the warmest month in Surprise?
The warmest stretch in Surprise comes in July, around 91°F on average.
What is the coldest month in Surprise?
On average December is the chilliest month in Surprise, about 52°F.
When can I start a vegetable garden in Surprise?
Time tomatoes in Surprise for two weeks after mid-March; peas and greens start at Surprise's frost line.
How many rainy days does Surprise get?
Surprise averages about 19 days with measurable rain or snow each year.
What hardiness zone is Surprise?
Surprise's hardiness zone tracks its winter low; with December near 52°F, check the USDA ZIP map for the exact zone.
What is the 10-day forecast for Surprise?
Surprise's extended outlook — daily high and low temperatures and precipitation chances for each upcoming day — is in the daily forecast above.
Will it rain this week in Surprise?
See this week's day-by-day rain chances for Surprise in the daily forecast above, and the next 24 hours in the hourly chart.
What is the weather like right now in Surprise?
Current conditions for Surprise and the next 24 hours — temperature, precipitation chance, and wind by the hour — are in the hourly forecast chart above.
How often is the Surprise forecast updated?
The Surprise forecast on this page is built from Open-Meteo weather-model data and refreshes regularly through the day.
When are sunrise and sunset in Surprise?
Today's sunrise and sunset times for Surprise are in the Almanac section above, along with civil dawn, civil dusk, and day length. Day length is longest near the summer solstice and shortest near the winter solstice.
How accurate is the weather forecast for Surprise?
The next few days in Surprise's forecast are the most reliable; accuracy declines beyond about a week as weather-model uncertainty grows.

Climate

Surprise, Arizona has a hot desert climate: January averages roughly 52°F, July about 91°F, 39°F between them.

In a typical year Surprise records about 10 inches of precipitation on around 19 days.

At 33.7°N, Surprise's 39°F summer-to-winter swing sets when Surprise's gardens wake and when frost returns.

All cities in Arizona →

Phoenix, AZ weather →

ZIP codes in Surprise

  • 85361
  • 85379
  • 85388
  • 85387
  • 85374
  • 85378

Climate normals from the Open-Meteo Climate API. Köppen approximation from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Regions. See methodology for data sources, editorial rules, and corrections. Maintainer: Brian Tighe.